Abstract Title

The paper delivers the main findings of a research project we recently completed on the relationship between the use of foresight and the design of firm business strategy, which is intrinsically linked with a “foresight” analysis about the future of the industry in which the firm competes. Today many companies, in all industries, continuously monitor the emerging technologies and investigate the likely futures of themes in the economy, institutions and society. The analysis of these domains may encompass different levels: the macro one, focussing on a broadly defined industry (e.g. energy industry); the meso one, focussing on a business area or a narrowly defined sector (e.g., the gas industry); the micro one, focussing on an investment project. What still seems to be lacking is a comprehensive framework of analysis, that clearly defines how all the foresight activities carried out in a firm could be integrated and coordinated in a synergistic and organic way. Some key questions arise: how can emerging trends, potentially able to reshape an industry, be identified? How can their implications for business strategy be drawn? How should the investigation be carried out in order to provide really useful information for decision makers? How should this information be generated and spread throughout the organisation? These are the main questions we give an answer, through an on-field research based on interviews to top managers of some companies that have established an organizational unit dedicated to foresight (Shell, BASF, Nokia, Philips, Siemens, Morgan Stanley) and a literature analysis of several cases of firms able to foresight disruptive changes in their industry and to design appropriate strategies. At the end, some general guidelines on how to integrate and coordinate foresight activities within a firm are provided.